Prediction of COVID-19 evolution in Binh Duong province using SIR epidemiological model

By Pham Bao Quoc, Vo Van On, Nguyen Duy Khanh, Nguyen Thi Lien Thuong, Huynh Thi Phuong Thuy, Hoang Van Ngoc, Nguyen Thanh Tung, Vo Hoang An
DOI: 10.37550/tdmu. EJS/2021.03.219

With the fast growth of the COVID-19 pandemic, in-silico studies based on the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemiological model are very critical to provide reliable predictions of the COVID-19 evolution that can effectively support governments to issue the right measures to prevent and control the pandemic. In this study, the evolution of the COVID-19 in the Binh Duong province is investigated using the SIR model implemented in R-Studio software, in which the homemade computer codes based on the SIR model are developed using R language to automatically detect the optimal parameters in the model, including the reproduction ratio R0, the infection coefficient β, and the recovery coefficient γ. The SIR predictions indicate that the number of new positive cases per day in the Binh Duong province is only 40 new cases by November 30, 2021, and the total number of new cases per day becomes zero by middle February 2021. Besides, the Binh Duong province only has 1126 infected cases by November 30, 2021, which reduces to 203 cases at the end of December 2021. Through the SIR results, the COVID-19 pandemic in the Binh Duong is predicted to be ended at the end of December 2021.